U.S Senate Predictions.....I'm a Bit Nervous.........

One might imagine that a political independent who votes for Democrats 99 % of the time such as myself would feel very confident given all the current poll numbers. But, both Al Gore and John Kerry were reportedly going to win on Election Day, and it's been a long time since John F. Kennedy edged out Richard Nixon in 1960. Nevertheless, I hope we can party 'like it's 1994' tomorrow night. I feel confident that the two U.S Senators I most disdain Sen. George 'Maccacovitz' Allen (R-Va) and Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa) are both going down. But, I am afraid that the ultra-corrupt Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mt) will once again barely prevail mainly because Montana is heavily Republican and Burns has been in the Senate for a long time. Here are my predictions...to save time I will mention the party of my projected winner as opposed to mentioning the candidates' name, except in a few circumstances.

While the first few projected winners will be Democrats, you will notice a gradul change as you scroll down. These are not all the races, but most of them.

1)Virginia---

Democrat JAMES WEBB (my biggest regret about moving to NC is not being able to vote for him...I hate Allen that much)

2) Maryland-

Democrat

3) Rhode Island-

Democrat- just barely

4) Pennsylvania

Democrat- bye Rick!

5) Conn-

the Lieberman Party

6) Ohio-

Democrat

7) Michigan-

Democrat

8) NY-

Democrat- Hillary, of course

9) Tenn-

Republican Bob Corker will barely prevail over Harold Ford Jr. I hate to see a pro-Turkish Democrat lose, but I can't see good ole boys voting for an Afr-American

10) Florida-

Democrat

11) WV-

Democrat.. Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) stands to surpass Strom Thurmond as the oldest U.S. Sen. ever

12) NJ -Democrat Bob Menendez will prevail in a tougher than expected race.

12) Montana-

Republican

13)

Arizona-

Republican- arch conservative Sen. John Kyl is expected to barely prevail her

14) Missouri- Alas, I think Sen. James Talent will hang on and this will just prevent the Democrats from overtaking the Senate.

With a possible Lieberman defection, it may not matter anyhow. I also think Democrats will prevail in Minnesota and New Mexico. I believe I've included all the competive ones as well as some which may be closer than expected.

 

In spite of my slight pessimism, I am still expecting major gains in the House. I sense that the Democrats will definitely get at least 20-25 seats for a comfortable takeover. Of these candidates, I hope Cong. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Co) is among those who will need to take one last trip to the Lincoln Memorial.

There are needless to say some good moderate Republicans, such as Sen. Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI), who stand to lose because of the GOP's move to the fringe far-right.

All in all, it should still be a good night. And, all of us in the Virginia disaspora should be thankful that George Allen made his grand maccaca gaffe near the Virginia-Kentucky border, back in August. He should now have plenty of time to watch football games and munch on potato chips..........which is what he should have been doing all along!

 

 

Thoughts on Election Day and the Religious Right

I am in a bit of a lazy motif on this Sunday afternoon. Everything is pretty much closed here in Reidsville, NC, on Sunday, so it is perhaps harder to feel guilty about being lazy than it might be in Provincetown, Mass.- the most liberal city in America (with Provo, Ut., being the most conservative). But, I am certainly no fan of the religious right. I was delighted by the recent scandal in Colorado involving Rev. Ted Haggard, the president of the National Association of Evangelicals. As many of you know, Haggard has apparently partially confessed to being involved with a gay male prostitute in Denver. Haggard is reported to have made numerous trips from Colorado Springs to Denver to 'get a massage'

In a statement released by the Rev. Barry Lynn, the executive director of Americans United for Separation of Church and State, it has been a really tough year for the religious right.

Lynn went on to say that: "Their (the religious right's) moral champion Tom DeLay left Congress in disgrace. Their 'family values' allies in the House were caught covering up the Mark Foley scandal. Then they learned that Karl Rove's office thinks they're nuts. And, now one of their most influnential leaders is mired in scandal." Lynn went on to say that Haggard represents more people than the Rev. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson combined. Lynn also said that the religious right leaders need to focus more on their own family because they try to fix anyone else's.

On this week's editiion of the PBS show "The MacGaughlin Group," the panel which consists of far-right activist Pat Buchanan and liberal political commentator Lawerence O'Donell, predicted a Democratic take-over of both the House and Senate. Buchanan reluctantly stated that Sen. Rick Santorium (R-Pa) would go down to defeat. The panel also agreed by a 3-2 margin that Jim Webb would defeat Sen. George 'Maccacowitz' Allen (R-Va)- the nickname is on that many beltway insiders have tagged the arch-conservative senator with.

And, lastly, "Rolling Stone" has named the twn worst members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The lone Democrat on the worst offenders list was Cong. William Jefferson (D-La). Those named included far-right extremist Cong. Marilyn Musgraves (R-Co.) who my sister Lale and her husband Matt have the misfortune (in their words) of being represented by. Pres. Bush went to Greeley, Co., to support Musgraves over the weekend. She has been one of his staunches allies. Musgraves is known for being aggressively homophobic. Cong. Barney Frank (D-Ma.) told "Rolling Stone" that Musgraves would always be ardently against gay marriage because the thought of one homosexual was offensive to her; therefore, the thought of two gay people being together would be absolutely appauling to her. According to "Rolling Stone," Musgraves also blacked out parts of health books which dealt with sex education while she was a member of a local school board.

Alas, there are no important Senate races in NC. But, I am hoping that our Congressman, Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC) will soundly defeat Vernon Robinson, aka 'the black Jesse Helms." As a Winston-Salem city council member, Robinson was absent for 20 out of 22 committee meetings. I would say that he is a shoe-in for the ten worst Congressional candidates!

Related sites:

http://www.rollingstone.com

http://www.au.org

http://www.votesmart.org

 

Remembering William Styron

I had chance to meet the author of "Sophie's Choice" at the 1997 Virginia Film Festival in Charlottesville. His daughter was there to show a film she directed based on a Styron short story. I believe "Shadrac" was the title. I wrote a term about Styron's work when I was at Radford University circa 1994. I read the novel "The Confessions of Nat Turner," which won him the Pulitzer Prize in 1967. Styron also wrote a breakthrough book about his struggle with depression called "Darkness Visible." He died at age 81 this week. "Sophie's Choice" was recently made into an unlikely opera, and it premiered in Washington DC. He will be missed.

 

Any errors in this blog are due to the fact that it was written in haste!